Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 2.376224 2.525110 2.688634 2.883704 3.113106 3.378457 3.715237
2025-09-07 2.227400 2.412625 2.625472 2.893503 3.230633 3.654355 4.253859
2025-09-14 2.047156 2.236162 2.457816 2.744107 3.116329 3.604980 4.340623
2025-09-21 1.999056 2.207735 2.459129 2.795243 3.253233 3.894888 4.962854
2025-09-28 1.905166 2.115403 2.372072 2.721332 3.209155 3.917684 5.170013
2025-10-05 1.893194 2.121961 2.407906 2.809589 3.397244 4.313588 6.157562
2025-10-12 1.891011 2.139363 2.457229 2.918771 3.628927 4.832326 7.719122
2025-10-19 1.839496 2.089849 2.413754 2.891386 3.644454 4.976269 8.518480
2025-10-26 1.803683 2.058729 2.392704 2.893888 3.706839 5.221209 9.859208
2025-11-02 1.762943 2.019057 2.357399 2.871790 3.724378 5.379544 11.139638
2025-11-09 1.715398 1.968413 2.304361 2.818984 3.682886 5.402694 11.927457
2025-11-16 1.680232 1.933056 2.271036 2.794086 3.687609 5.530587 13.540428
2025-11-23 1.649158 1.905632 2.252478 2.798792 3.761279 5.881172 18.494443
2025-11-30 1.622893 1.883264 2.239376 2.810195 3.848096 6.303882 30.984543
2025-12-07 1.554752 1.801252 2.136932 2.671368 3.631223 5.838448 23.213882
2025-12-14 1.545123 1.799252 2.150070 2.720692 3.786744 6.480350 88.775982
2025-12-21 1.503113 1.751027 2.093630 2.651833 3.698004 6.362540 118.638328
2025-12-28 1.505289 1.764138 2.127709 2.735756 3.934182 7.428024 NaN
2026-01-04 1.511468 1.782888 2.170911 2.839092 4.236446 9.139552 NaN
2026-01-11 1.485745 1.755310 2.142353 2.813723 4.239411 9.518536 NaN
2026-01-18 1.468051 1.738680 2.129899 2.816379 4.310579 10.383773 NaN
2026-01-25 1.445913 1.714998 2.105584 2.795784 4.321279 10.921388 NaN
2026-02-01 1.418156 1.682540 2.066594 2.746147 4.252460 10.849886 NaN